Hot Stove Madness

It's been a while since I updated (understatement), but I thought I'd take a minute and weigh in on some of the free agent signings in this '06-'07 offseason.

Jim Edmonds remains with the Cardinals, 2 years $19 million

I know at least one other guy who’s very happy about this deal. Edmonds can still flash the leather with the best of them in center, and that alone is a reason to whip out the checkbook. Though he’s clearly on the decline, Jimmy Ballgame still provides offensive value by taking walks and driving the ball when he makes contact. The major concern at this point is his susceptibility to injury, as flying into walls and diving for balls are not forgiving on 37-year-old bodies. If he can give the Cardinals 400 at-bats and 130 starts in center each year for the duration of the contract, he’ll put a cap on an outstanding career, with an outside chance at the Hall of Fame.

Overall grade: B+

Aramis Ramirez to the Cubs, 5 years $75 million

I like this move. Chicago locks up arguably their best offensive position player for a slightly below-market value and with a contract that ends just as he’s likely to go into the steep decline phase of his career. Despite a slow start to 2006, Ramirez finished the year with over a .900 OPS and a career high Isolated Slugging. He has also taken steps in plate discipline in recent years, improving his walk ratio and decreasing his strikeouts in the last few seasons.

Ramirez supposedly measures as below average defensively, especially in hands and range. Baseball Prospectus 2005 (left my 2006 copy at school) has him at -10 runs with the glove. Considering his age (29 at midseason 2007) there is still a year or two left for him to play reasonably defense, and even if he has to move to first base later in his career, he’s got the bat to support it. Well done, Jim Hendry.

Overall grade: A-

Alfonso Soriano to the Cubs, 8 years $136 million

I did not see this one coming. For an organization that sorely needs to rebuild from within both talent-wise and philosophically, I had not anticipated the Cubs splurging on the free agent market, especially after re-upping with Ramirez for no small amount.

Now, I’ve always been one of Soriano’s biggest detractors, but there’s no denying that the guy can swing the bat. Every year I predict that the league will figure him out, and every year he proves me wrong. He snubbed me in especially flamboyant fashion in 2006 by joining the elusive “40-40 club.” Particularly impressive was that he posted the highest ISO of his career in a reportedly pitching-friendly park and drastically improved his walk total. Soriano worked 67 bases on balls, nearly doubling his next highest season total (38 in 2003), leading to his highest RC/27 of his career, perhaps the most important offensive statistic.

For a bit of perspective, however, Soriano’s Runs Created rate puts him at 31st in the league, just in front of Reed Johnson and Vernon Wells but behind much lesser known players like Garret Atkins (#13) and Carlos Guillen (#23). I realize that the free agent market continues to appreciate in cost and risk, but this remains an absurd contract for a 31-year old player without an elite skillset.

I have always said that Soriano was more flash than substance, better fantasy player than real player, and despite 2006 I stand by my statement. He lacks defensive instincts in both the infield and outfield, a problem that will only fester as he loses the speed he uses to compensate for poor reads. Eight years is an eternity to give an all-hit, no-glove player on the wrong side of 30, especially one that is already an abysmal contact hitter (160 strikeouts last year) with poor strike zone judgment (throw him breaking stuff away, and feel the breeze). It’s often foolish to hand out 6+ year contracts to even the best players in baseball (How good will 37-year old Todd Helton be in 2010?), and Soriano’s are not skills that one should overpay for.

It is admittedly nearly impossible to get fair value in today’s free agent market, but I submit that Soriano’s offensive skillset is not enough to justify the paycheck, especially in light of his porous defense in a league where he can’t be hidden at DH as he ages. I guess this move fits with their organizational fascination with long-swinged toolsy hackers, but the Cubs could have better spent this money improving the team in other areas.

Overall grade: C-

More to come with more Hot Stove activity…

Mo Money, Mo Pena. Or: How I learned to stop worrying about OBP and love the bombs

Two weeks ago, the Red Sox completed what I see to be a fairly significant trade for the future of the franchise. As you probably read, the Sox swapped fan favorite Bronson Arroyo and cash for Wily Mo Pena, a 24-year old, power hitting strikeout machine.

From the ever-nagging fanboy perspective, I’m sorry to see Bronson go. He was a big part of the ’04 World Series team, and certainly a class act. Having signed a 3 year/$11 million contract earlier in the offseason (most likely below market value), Bronson proclaimed his desire to spend the rest his career with the team that picked him up off the minor league scrapheap and saved his career some 4 years ago. He was the rare ballplayer that went against the advice of his agent, and did not hold the almighty dollar as his highest priority. Thanks, Bronson, for 3 solid years and all the fans you made very happy during that time.

This said, I’ve done my best on this blog to approach these issues from a purely baseball-value perspective, and frankly, I think this is a no-contest slam dunk on the part of the Red Sox front office. Some misguided folks in the media are baffled at this move, which they say goes against the grain of the “Moneyball” philosophy to which Theo and company are supposedly wedded. Fortunately, it is this very misconception that allows our front office to pull off deals like this.

The whole “Moneyball” philosophy (and I hate using this term) is not about merely finding warm bodies who take a bunch of walks. It is, in my mind, a simple organizational creed that emphasizes 1) finding player value in underrated, undercosted areas, and 2) moving from a state of lesser value to a state of greater value. This trade accomplishes both of these aims, with the potential to net a great deal more.

With all of the media attention that “that book” has garnered, it’s no longer a secret (well, to most GMs at least) that OBP is arguably the most important statistic in baseball. Though there are still occasional players with on-base skills who slip through organizational cracks, I get the sense that many clubs are beginning to emphasize plate discipline at every professional level. Thus, even the most statistically literate front offices are pushed to look for other skills that are undervalued in today’s game.

Wily Mo Pena is an example of a player with a fantastic skill: This guy can rake. No, seriously. In his 4 years of major league service (830 at bats), Pena has posted an isolated slugging percentage of .229, more than the career marks of players like Miguel Tejada and Carlos Lee. Have a look at Pena’s stats from the last few years. Two of his comps on baseball-reference.com are Harmon Killebrew and Roger Maris, some of the game’s greatest home run hitters.

So, why would Cincinnati trade him for Bronson Arroyo? Because he strikes out a bunch. And doesn’t have a great glove, despite owning above-average defensive tools across the board. Same old story. We’re talking a team here that is going to do everything in its power to get Tony Womack and his career .672 OPS 500-plus at bats, while Ryan Freel serves as a bench warmer and utility swingman. I’ll let you draw your own conclusions, but I’ll just say that I was very happy the Sox could pull this deal off.

I am of the philosophy that if you can get a young, cheap player with an exceptional talent demonstrated over an adequate sample size, you do it. Pena may not be an on base machine or a defensive wizard, and he many never become these things, but these are skills that can be improved with time. Hitting coaches can teach plate discipline, but you can’t “coach” a player to hit a major league fastball 480 feet.

Pena has a demonstrable elite-level skill with ample time to develop his game. Bronson Arroyo is a great player, but has reached a career plateau that does not boast any such elite-level skill. The Red Sox made the right move in acquiring Pena at a time when his value was low. At worst, he is a 4th outfielder with a ton of power and decent speed. At best, Pena could be a successor to the greats that currently occupy the middle of the lineup. We may not know for some time, but I, for one, am excited at the possibilities this trade has brought to the team.

Sox to trade Marte, sign Gonzalez?

Hello, my few esteemed blog readers!

The Boston Herald is reporting that the Sox have reached a preliminary agreement to send Andy Marte and Guillermo Mota to the Indians for Coco Crisp and low-level prospects. Supposedly, the Red Sox are also set to sign free agent Alex Gonzalez, formerly of the world champion Florida Marlins.

Let’s consider the first move. Earlier this offseason, Boston unloaded Edgar Renteria and cash to get Andy Marte, widely regarded as the best overall prospect in professional baseball. Marte tore up the international league as its youngest member, hitting .275/.372/.506 in 389 at bats in 2005. Now, the Sox are set to flip Marte to Cleveland. Media outlets report that this deal hinges on Cleveland’s ability to send Mota to the Phillies for a replacement outfielder, reportedly Jason Michaels.

If the Sox are set to get Crisp, there are certainly many positives to the situation. Cost controlled, switch-hitting center fielders are a prized commodity. A line drive hitter with decent power for his size, Crisp is just entering his peak years, and has shown steady improvement in both power and on-base skills since entering the league at age 23. Last year he put up a line of .300/.345/.465, including 42 doubles in 594 at bats.

However, Crisp is not a cure-all for the team’s center field and perceived “leadoff man” problem. He is more of a natural corner outfielder, as evidenced by his lack of recent playing time in center (only 10 games last year) and his lackluster fielding stats there (.866 career zone rating in center, compared to a .907 in left field). Though I haven’t seen him play enough to make my own judgments about his fielding, I’ve read reports that he takes awkward routes to fly balls, and doesn’t have the natural defensive tools to be an above average defender in center. Although Crisp is considered speedy, he lacks the high-percentage basestealing skills ideally fitted to a team that only swipes bases situationally. I’m very impressed with his hitting skillset, but his on base percentage and pitches per plate appearance (3.55 career, 3.48 last year) are both low for a “leadoff” hitter.

This situation makes me wonder -- what is stopping the Sox from trading with the Phillies directly for Jason Michaels? With the “Crisp to Boston” rumors flying around for the last couple of months, Michaels has flown under the radar as another inexpensive possible solution to the vacancy. I can’t see why we don’t offer Mota and a B-level prospect to the Phillies, circumventing Marte’s departure entirely. Michaels would provide similar production to Crisp at a drastically reduced cost.

There are many reasons to think Michaels would be a solid fit in the Boston lineup. He sports a career .380 on base percentage, remarkable for a player who has never been given more than 300 at-bats in a season. Hopefully his reputation as a “free swinger” would further drive down his value, because his strikeout totals mask Bellhorn-esque patience (4.06 career P/PA) and on-base skills. These are the numbers of a potential leadoff hitter. Although his splits favor facing left-handed pitching, his .360 OBP and .780 career OPS against right-handers are certainly no liability. If he starts in center against RHP, he could be Trot Nixon’s platoon partner in right field against left-handed starters, allowing Adam Stern to start those games in center field. Michaels isn’t a marquee defender, but figures to be comparable to Crisp at the position.

Given the dearth of reasonable center field options and the rapidly waning hot-stove season, it’s becoming more apparent that the team must make a move. However, I disagree with trading Marte, one of baseball’s rising young stars, when this hole could be filled less expensively with other players. Let me hear your thoughts!

Tomorrow or Tuesday I will post my opinion on the possible Alex Gonzalez signing.

Is there anybody out there?

Hello faithful reader(s)

Just a quick note to let you know I haven't forgotten about updating. I'm currently in the middle of final exams, but you can expect an update around the 17th with my thoughts on the many offseason moves.

Thanks for reading!

Jason

Possible solutions to the CF vacancy

I’ve compiled a few reasonable options for next year’s center field position, assuming that Johnny Damon won’t be returning. Here we go:

Who: Brad Wilkerson, CF/1B, WAS

Why: Wilkerson would be my top choice to put on a Sox uniform in 2006. He’s a 29 year old with a solid CF glove and a plus arm, and also plays first base. Wilkerson still has 2 years of salary arbitration, so he should provide cost-effective offense over the next couple of years if he can be had in a trade. Wilkerson had a down year in 2005 due to playing through multiple injuries, but still put up a line of .248/.351/.405 while playing half of his games in a heavy pitcher’s park. His 2004 year was his breakout, where he slugged 32 home runs, walked over a hundred times, and hit .255/.374/.498 while having the second highest pitches per plate appearance in the NL. He could also fill the role of leadoff hitter, since he has adequate baserunning speed and sees lots of pitches. His power will not be wasted at the top of the lineup, since Sox #8 and #9 hitters are frequently on base anyway.

How: Wilkerson is not a free agent this offseason, but has reportedly had trouble with teammate Jose Guillen and manager Frank Robinson. We have seen that the Nationals’ front office doesn’t seem to take a particularly statistical approach to player management, as evidenced by signing Christian Guzman to be their starting shortstop for 4 years and $16 million (Ask me why this is worse than the Renteria contract). Thus, perhaps Wilkerson can be had for less than his true value, which in my opinion is quite high. As we know from the clamor over Damon’s free agency, .800 OPS decent-fielding center fielders don’t grow on trees. If the Sox can make reasonably sure that Wilkerson has healed from his injuries during the 2005 season, the Sox should take advantage of his “down” year and get a trade done.


Who: Ryan Freel, 2B/3B/OF, CIN

Why: He’s cheap (still under arbitration – made only $400,000 this past season) and can play a ton of positions with competence. He has acceptable range in the outfield (.877 career zone rating in CF) and exceptional speed. While Freel is not a monster at the plate, he has quite a few qualities that make him a good leadoff candidate. He sees a good number of pitches (about 4 per plate appearance over the last two years) and has an above average batting eye and walk rate, which have improved over the last couple of years.

A right-handed doubles hitter, Freel would benefit from the wall in short left field. Freel is also a speedy baserunner, having swiped 73 bags over the last two years with a 78% success rate. If we are able to acquire a bigger bat to play center, Freel’s ability to hit left-handed pitching could allow him to be Nixon’s platoon partner in right field, as well as filling in at second and third base as needed.

How: Though Cincinnati probably enjoys Freel’s decent production for such a low cost, their lineup choices have made it pretty clear that they see him as more of an oft-played utility man than a fulltime position player. If we could acquire him through trade and either play him fulltime in center, or split time between left/center/infield, he could be a solid asset to the team. Now if we could only convince the Cincinnati front office to throw in that Dunn fellow as well…


Who: Kenny Lofton, CF, free agent

Why: Now we’re digging a little deeper, but the veteran can still play reasonable center field defense and draw a decent number of walks. Though an injury risk at this point in his career (last 500 at-bat season: 2001), Lofton still appears to be a legit .750-ish OPS center fielder. Perhaps a reduction in emphasis on his famous running game will allow him to stay healthier in Boston while providing experience and adequate speed at the top of the lineup. The presence of two lefty outfielders in the lineup would be troubling, though, as both are liabilities against left handed pitching

How: Sign him to a one or two year deal. One year for $2.5 million or two for 4 could do the trick, though I think the Red Sox will explore many other options before resorting to Lofton.


Who: Preston Wilson, CF, free agent

Why: Preston Wilson is on this list simply because he’s a free agent with a pulse and above-league average numbers for a center fielder. This is not to say that I think he’s a bad player, it’s just that I think he will command more money on the open market than his Coors-inflated skillset is worth. However, after having multiple knee problems in the last couple of years, perhaps the 31-year old is looking to sign a 1-year discount deal to prove his health before seeking the last multiple year/big money contract of his career (see: Garciaparra, Nomar. 2005).

Wilson’s average arm and declining range are nothing to get excited about, but his bat still has enough pop left in it to bounce 30-plus doubles off of the Green Monster. His lackluster on-base skills make me doubt he’s the kind of player the Sox FO is looking for, but there are certainly worse options out there.

How: Sign him to a 1-year deal at a discount. Allow him to accumulate 100 RBI in Red Sox lineup. Laugh and wave goodbye next November when he signs for big money somewhere else.

Though it’s difficult to predict how the center field situation will pan out in 2006, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a platoon complement whatever main starter the Sox acquire. As he’s obligated to be on the active roster for at least the beginning of the year we’ll likely see Rule 5-er Adam Stern in the mix, as well as minor league journeyman Alejandro Machado manning center. Thoughts? Comments? Drop me a line.

The Offseason Report, part 1: An Idiot's Farewell

As always, the 2005-2006 offseason will be filled with difficult decisions for Theo and company. With a few key players departing for free agency and a dearth of top-shelf talent on the free agent market, the Red Sox front office will endeavor to piece together the starting lineup, bench, bullpen, and rotation for 2006 and beyond. Perhaps the most highly anticipated decision of the year is whether to sign Johnny Damon to a long-term contract. Damon has said he is seeking a deal in the neighborhood of 5 years / $50 million dollars. Letting Damon walk and perhaps allowing him to sign with a rival AL team will be a difficult call to make, but I believe it is the right one. Here are some of my thoughts:

Though generally billed as a solid defensive center fielder, Damon has said publicly that he has trouble judging fly balls since his head injury in the 2003 ALCS, a problem that is especially bad in domed stadiums. As a subjective viewer, it seems that Damon often takes suboptimal routes to fly balls, instead relying on his speed, which may itself be in decline, to compensate. Obviously I won't reference stolen base numbers as indicators of speed (Damon actually had a ratio of 18 steals to 1 caught stealing, suggesting improvement as a baserunner), but his zone rating in center has seen a steady decline over the last four years (.910, .906, .879, .874 for 2002-2005 as per ESPN).

Common sense would dictate that Damon's speed will decline substantially over the term of his next contract, thus leading to a similar decline in defense. His already below-average arm was rendered nearly useless following a midseason nagging shoulder injury to the point where, in one game, Carl Crawford actually tagged up and scored from second on a deep fly out to center.

If we look at Damon's hitting numbers we find similar red flags that would caution handing out a long-term contract. Damon's walk rate plummeted in '05 while his strikeout rate remained the same, and he appeared to be pressing at the plate in the second half, hacking at many first pitches and balls out of the zone. This is evidenced in his drop in number of pitches seen per plate appearance (3.72 in 2005 after 4.13 in '03 and 4.12 in '04). Damon's isolated power also dropped from .173 in '04 to .123 this season, and we can be reasonably sure he will never replicate his 2004 career high in home runs (20) at age 33.

Assume, for a moment, that these are normal regressions to the mean following a career year in 2004. Assume the shoulder injury that sapped his power (.397 slugging percentage and .115 isolated power post all-star break) and reduced his throwing arm to nothing will heal completely in the offseason. We are left with a player whose normal season production falls somewhere in the neighborhood of .315/.370/.435 with a (likely non-replicable) ceiling of his 2004 numbers (.304/.380/.477). Due to his age we can reasonably assume no consistent improvement in his skillset, and can in fact predict a steady decline in skills over the next few years. We would also expect Johnny's "all-out" playing style to increase the probability of serious injury as he ages. Add in the liability for a throwing arm, and this seems like an unattractive candidate for a big-money, long term contract.

Johnny Damon is a unique baseball player with a skillset that will be difficult to replace. Though a self described "idiot," Damon plays the game with intelligence and charisma. He is an excellent leadoff man and the catalyst to the most explosive offense in baseball. Damon is an excellent baserunner whose speed-reliant defense has been more than adequate up to this point. This being said, we should not be handcuffing ourselves to a 33-year old gap-power outfielder. Though a more productive center fielder will be difficult to find, the difference between production of a relatively cheap replacement and Damon can be made up elsewhere in the lineup (first base, for instance).

The Red Sox cannot allow the dearth of free agent talent to force the them into a deal that will compromise payroll flexibility and the ability to sign better free agents in coming years. My greatest fear is that we sign Damon to a 5 year deal, and for 2008 through 2010 are left with a Bernie Williams-like liability patrolling center field. We'll look into some viable replacement options in the next update.

It's back

Hey all. I'm back from a two week blog hiatus due to vacation to California and finishing up work for the summer. Stay tuned for some thoughts on the current Sox lineup, Dustin Pedroia, roster expansion, and the playoff run coming very soon.