Possible solutions to the CF vacancy
I’ve compiled a few reasonable options for next year’s center field position, assuming that Johnny Damon won’t be returning. Here we go:
Who: Brad Wilkerson, CF/1B, WAS
Why: Wilkerson would be my top choice to put on a Sox uniform in 2006. He’s a 29 year old with a solid CF glove and a plus arm, and also plays first base. Wilkerson still has 2 years of salary arbitration, so he should provide cost-effective offense over the next couple of years if he can be had in a trade. Wilkerson had a down year in 2005 due to playing through multiple injuries, but still put up a line of .248/.351/.405 while playing half of his games in a heavy pitcher’s park. His 2004 year was his breakout, where he slugged 32 home runs, walked over a hundred times, and hit .255/.374/.498 while having the second highest pitches per plate appearance in the NL. He could also fill the role of leadoff hitter, since he has adequate baserunning speed and sees lots of pitches. His power will not be wasted at the top of the lineup, since Sox #8 and #9 hitters are frequently on base anyway.
How: Wilkerson is not a free agent this offseason, but has reportedly had trouble with teammate Jose Guillen and manager Frank Robinson. We have seen that the Nationals’ front office doesn’t seem to take a particularly statistical approach to player management, as evidenced by signing Christian Guzman to be their starting shortstop for 4 years and $16 million (Ask me why this is worse than the Renteria contract). Thus, perhaps Wilkerson can be had for less than his true value, which in my opinion is quite high. As we know from the clamor over Damon’s free agency, .800 OPS decent-fielding center fielders don’t grow on trees. If the Sox can make reasonably sure that Wilkerson has healed from his injuries during the 2005 season, the Sox should take advantage of his “down” year and get a trade done.
Who: Ryan Freel, 2B/3B/OF, CIN
Why: He’s cheap (still under arbitration – made only $400,000 this past season) and can play a ton of positions with competence. He has acceptable range in the outfield (.877 career zone rating in CF) and exceptional speed. While Freel is not a monster at the plate, he has quite a few qualities that make him a good leadoff candidate. He sees a good number of pitches (about 4 per plate appearance over the last two years) and has an above average batting eye and walk rate, which have improved over the last couple of years.
A right-handed doubles hitter, Freel would benefit from the wall in short left field. Freel is also a speedy baserunner, having swiped 73 bags over the last two years with a 78% success rate. If we are able to acquire a bigger bat to play center, Freel’s ability to hit left-handed pitching could allow him to be Nixon’s platoon partner in right field, as well as filling in at second and third base as needed.
How: Though Cincinnati probably enjoys Freel’s decent production for such a low cost, their lineup choices have made it pretty clear that they see him as more of an oft-played utility man than a fulltime position player. If we could acquire him through trade and either play him fulltime in center, or split time between left/center/infield, he could be a solid asset to the team. Now if we could only convince the Cincinnati front office to throw in that Dunn fellow as well…
Who: Kenny Lofton, CF, free agent
Why: Now we’re digging a little deeper, but the veteran can still play reasonable center field defense and draw a decent number of walks. Though an injury risk at this point in his career (last 500 at-bat season: 2001), Lofton still appears to be a legit .750-ish OPS center fielder. Perhaps a reduction in emphasis on his famous running game will allow him to stay healthier in Boston while providing experience and adequate speed at the top of the lineup. The presence of two lefty outfielders in the lineup would be troubling, though, as both are liabilities against left handed pitching
How: Sign him to a one or two year deal. One year for $2.5 million or two for 4 could do the trick, though I think the Red Sox will explore many other options before resorting to Lofton.
Who: Preston Wilson, CF, free agent
Why: Preston Wilson is on this list simply because he’s a free agent with a pulse and above-league average numbers for a center fielder. This is not to say that I think he’s a bad player, it’s just that I think he will command more money on the open market than his Coors-inflated skillset is worth. However, after having multiple knee problems in the last couple of years, perhaps the 31-year old is looking to sign a 1-year discount deal to prove his health before seeking the last multiple year/big money contract of his career (see: Garciaparra, Nomar. 2005).
Wilson’s average arm and declining range are nothing to get excited about, but his bat still has enough pop left in it to bounce 30-plus doubles off of the Green Monster. His lackluster on-base skills make me doubt he’s the kind of player the Sox FO is looking for, but there are certainly worse options out there.
How: Sign him to a 1-year deal at a discount. Allow him to accumulate 100 RBI in Red Sox lineup. Laugh and wave goodbye next November when he signs for big money somewhere else.
Though it’s difficult to predict how the center field situation will pan out in 2006, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a platoon complement whatever main starter the Sox acquire. As he’s obligated to be on the active roster for at least the beginning of the year we’ll likely see Rule 5-er Adam Stern in the mix, as well as minor league journeyman Alejandro Machado manning center. Thoughts? Comments? Drop me a line.
Who: Brad Wilkerson, CF/1B, WAS
Why: Wilkerson would be my top choice to put on a Sox uniform in 2006. He’s a 29 year old with a solid CF glove and a plus arm, and also plays first base. Wilkerson still has 2 years of salary arbitration, so he should provide cost-effective offense over the next couple of years if he can be had in a trade. Wilkerson had a down year in 2005 due to playing through multiple injuries, but still put up a line of .248/.351/.405 while playing half of his games in a heavy pitcher’s park. His 2004 year was his breakout, where he slugged 32 home runs, walked over a hundred times, and hit .255/.374/.498 while having the second highest pitches per plate appearance in the NL. He could also fill the role of leadoff hitter, since he has adequate baserunning speed and sees lots of pitches. His power will not be wasted at the top of the lineup, since Sox #8 and #9 hitters are frequently on base anyway.
How: Wilkerson is not a free agent this offseason, but has reportedly had trouble with teammate Jose Guillen and manager Frank Robinson. We have seen that the Nationals’ front office doesn’t seem to take a particularly statistical approach to player management, as evidenced by signing Christian Guzman to be their starting shortstop for 4 years and $16 million (Ask me why this is worse than the Renteria contract). Thus, perhaps Wilkerson can be had for less than his true value, which in my opinion is quite high. As we know from the clamor over Damon’s free agency, .800 OPS decent-fielding center fielders don’t grow on trees. If the Sox can make reasonably sure that Wilkerson has healed from his injuries during the 2005 season, the Sox should take advantage of his “down” year and get a trade done.
Who: Ryan Freel, 2B/3B/OF, CIN
Why: He’s cheap (still under arbitration – made only $400,000 this past season) and can play a ton of positions with competence. He has acceptable range in the outfield (.877 career zone rating in CF) and exceptional speed. While Freel is not a monster at the plate, he has quite a few qualities that make him a good leadoff candidate. He sees a good number of pitches (about 4 per plate appearance over the last two years) and has an above average batting eye and walk rate, which have improved over the last couple of years.
A right-handed doubles hitter, Freel would benefit from the wall in short left field. Freel is also a speedy baserunner, having swiped 73 bags over the last two years with a 78% success rate. If we are able to acquire a bigger bat to play center, Freel’s ability to hit left-handed pitching could allow him to be Nixon’s platoon partner in right field, as well as filling in at second and third base as needed.
How: Though Cincinnati probably enjoys Freel’s decent production for such a low cost, their lineup choices have made it pretty clear that they see him as more of an oft-played utility man than a fulltime position player. If we could acquire him through trade and either play him fulltime in center, or split time between left/center/infield, he could be a solid asset to the team. Now if we could only convince the Cincinnati front office to throw in that Dunn fellow as well…
Who: Kenny Lofton, CF, free agent
Why: Now we’re digging a little deeper, but the veteran can still play reasonable center field defense and draw a decent number of walks. Though an injury risk at this point in his career (last 500 at-bat season: 2001), Lofton still appears to be a legit .750-ish OPS center fielder. Perhaps a reduction in emphasis on his famous running game will allow him to stay healthier in Boston while providing experience and adequate speed at the top of the lineup. The presence of two lefty outfielders in the lineup would be troubling, though, as both are liabilities against left handed pitching
How: Sign him to a one or two year deal. One year for $2.5 million or two for 4 could do the trick, though I think the Red Sox will explore many other options before resorting to Lofton.
Who: Preston Wilson, CF, free agent
Why: Preston Wilson is on this list simply because he’s a free agent with a pulse and above-league average numbers for a center fielder. This is not to say that I think he’s a bad player, it’s just that I think he will command more money on the open market than his Coors-inflated skillset is worth. However, after having multiple knee problems in the last couple of years, perhaps the 31-year old is looking to sign a 1-year discount deal to prove his health before seeking the last multiple year/big money contract of his career (see: Garciaparra, Nomar. 2005).
Wilson’s average arm and declining range are nothing to get excited about, but his bat still has enough pop left in it to bounce 30-plus doubles off of the Green Monster. His lackluster on-base skills make me doubt he’s the kind of player the Sox FO is looking for, but there are certainly worse options out there.
How: Sign him to a 1-year deal at a discount. Allow him to accumulate 100 RBI in Red Sox lineup. Laugh and wave goodbye next November when he signs for big money somewhere else.
Though it’s difficult to predict how the center field situation will pan out in 2006, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a platoon complement whatever main starter the Sox acquire. As he’s obligated to be on the active roster for at least the beginning of the year we’ll likely see Rule 5-er Adam Stern in the mix, as well as minor league journeyman Alejandro Machado manning center. Thoughts? Comments? Drop me a line.
posted by Jason Paré at 1:58 AM
6 Comments:
I think Wilkerson is a stretch. I don't see a Nationals team that's feeling good about an overachieving young team start blowing it up right now by shipping out Wilkerson. That seems a little bit optimistic to me, though if he could be had, Wilkerson is a fine player with plenty of upside. I'm especially intrigued by Freel. The guy can play all over the field and help a team in a lot of ways. I don't, however, think he puts up the numbers to hit leadoff for the Red Sox. Can a leadoff man be found somewhere else in the lineup? What sort of outfield options are there in the Sox minor league system? What if Theo decides to blow up the team entirely, letting Damon walk and shipping Manny off for a pitcher and a centerfielder?
You have a point about the Nationals not wanting to dismantle what offensive pillars they have. I think, though, that Boston has a few B+ level prospects that would look pretty attractive for a team that's constantly trying to suppress payroll.
I'm glad you agree about Freel being a possible help to the team. I think that he could, in fact, put up good enough numbers to be the leadoff man -- that's if he can keep drawing walks for a full season at the rate he's displayed since the beginning of 2004.
If not, though, other players could certainly fill that roll. Graffanino did it briefly last year while Damon was injured, and Youkilis projects to have the on base percentage (if not the speed) required of the prototypical leadoff hitter. Second base prospect Dustin Pedroia projects to be a quintessential leadoff man, so if gets the call this year all bets are off.
To answer your question about the minor league OF situation, the Sox are pretty thin at that position. Brandon Moss and Dave Murphy are their best outfield prospects (since they shipped Matt Murton to Chicago in the Nomar deal), but those two are both at least 2-3 years away from the bigs.
There has been a lot of talk on other message boards about Theo "blowing up" the team and rebuilding for the future. Personally, I don't see the benefit of giving up for a year on a team that even minus Manny Ramirez could sign a couple key free agents (Paul Konerko and Brian Giles) and be a 90+ win club. The lightly rumored Manny-for-Beltran deal would solve the problem instantly, but we both know that's not happening. Time will tell, I guess. Thanks again for the thought-provoking comments.
okay, so this is probably a really stupid question, but how much (if at all) do GMs consider the disposition/spirit of a player in making their decisions? i only ask because i myself do not like kenny lofton, not because of anything particular about his playing, but because i don't like him. he's kind of a hotshot (at least, from what little i've seen of him). and from what i've seen of boston, it seems that chemistry is a big deal in terms of determining the quality of their play. am i the only one who thinks that renteria's performance suffered (at least partially) due to the fact that he had big enthustiastic shoes to fill? boston fans can be pretty loving or pretty cold, depending on the circumstances, and i kinda feel like the sox are a team who psychologically rely greatly on the fans.
obviously the front office will be making decisions according to stats and deals and agents and whatever, but how do you think the loss of johnny damon will affect the team (and the fans) on the emotional plane? not just his loss, but his replacement, i guess. will it even matter if they get a guy with good numbers who has a history of good technical play if the Nation only views him as "not Johnny Damon"? nomar made it easy, but will johnny?
and how heavily do you weigh a player's potential for injury in the FO decisions? am i overestimating the liability that potential injury presents, or are you just into risk-taking when it comes to administrative decicions?
oh and this is a less important matter i suppose, but do you know what's going on with bill mueller? i can't remember what the deal was with him.
AND what's up with the sox bullpen? (but i suppose that's for another blog)
keep up the great work. you've done a really nice job with being technical with your analysis and yet still making it understandable for people like me. =)
I've heard you come down pretty hard against trading Manny, but I don't really understand why. The guy is a phenomenal hitter but he's a chronic malcontent and a defensive liability. I think if you can ship Manny out of Boston for a major league ready pitcher and a blue-chip centerfield prospect, you've got to pull the trigger. Today I heard the Angels and Indians as possible destinations for Manny. Does anything in those systems interest you? What do you say if the Angels offer Ervin Santana and Casey Kotchman? Kotchman steps in and plays first base for five years at low cost, Santana is a young quality arm in the rotation, and the money saved can go to a guy like Brian Giles and another arm. Modified versions of the deal could even include Scot Shields, who would probably take over as closer for the Sox. I'd feel really confident that a lineup featuring Varitek, Kotchman, Ortiz, Graffanino, Renteria, Mueller, Giles, Nixon, and whoever is in center can score plenty enough runs to win.
From the Indians, what do you think about Grady Sizemore, Jhonny Peralta, and Jason Stanford for Manny. Either Sizemore would be a terrific young replacement for Johnny Damon, Peralta occupies the hole at second base, and Stanford is a good young righthander with upside. In a perfect world, the Sox would get Coco Crisp instead of Sizemore, but Crisp seems like a pipe dream to me. If you prefer, another possible deal may be Sizemore and Ben Broussard for Manny. There's your centerfielder and first basemen right there, cheap and young.
Both the Indians and the Angels trade make the Sox younger and cheaper and I feel in the long run better. I don't think the Sox need Manny and I think right now is a great time to trade him. You are right that he has three years left on his deal and during those three years he is going to put up All-Star numbers. But the fact is that this team does not need to score more runs; they need to get more people out. I think the three remaining years on his contract make Manny that much more attractive as trade bait. Teams aren't going to want to give up the farm for Manny when he has one year left. But with three years left on the contract, you will find teams willing to pillage their systems to pick up his bat.
Nora:
That's a hell of a post right there. I'll touch on every question:
GMs certainly do take personality traits into a account. Chemistry seems to be especially important to the Red Sox, especially considering that they have the financial flexibility to afford only signing players that fit into their "system." I'm not too sure what Lofton's reputation is like, but it will be a factor in any decision.
As for Renteria, one camp of people will tell you that he didn't do well this year because he switched leagues and the "pressure" of playing in Boston got to him. Another camp will tell you that he put on weight before spring training and was playing with some sort of nagging injury for most of the year. And a third will tell you that he didn't put up great numbers because he's just not that great of a player, and now is on the wrong side of 30. Personally I fall somewhere in the middle of all of these viewpoints, but I do think the fans at the Fens began to affect him a bit as the year went on.
Armchair fans will complain about the "loss of Johnny," and will certainly have good reason if Damon continues to produce at this level for the next several years. Though Nomar made it easy for casual fans to hate him by publicly showing his displeasure (sulking on the bench, etc.), Johnny has taken the more subtle route of demanding a ridiculous contract from the team, one that just doesn't make sense when you weigh its price against the value it will deliver. Ultimately, I think he's going to be missed if he leaves, but the fans and players will get over it like they got over losing Pedro, Lowe, etc. Business is business.
A player's injury history is definitely a part of the objective and subjective analysis of any player. Clearly, any player can have a freak accident at any time (think Matt Clement this year), but I'm sure FOs are more confident signing players that have demonstrated the ability to stay healthy. The opposite extreme are the guys who have a stint on the DL every year, guys like Griffey or (our favorite) Dave Roberts, and if you acquire them you just have to accept these DL stints as an eventuality, weighing the potential disutility of having to use a backup for an extended period of time against the skills a player brings to the table.
Mueller has a team option for 2006, meaning that the team can choose to retain him for next year at an already agreed upon price (I'd guess around $3 million offhand). My guess is that they will decline his option and elect to use Youkilis fulltime at third, while Mueller will enter free agency and attempt to get the last multi-year contract of his career. Personally I'd like to see a Mueller/Youkilis platoon, but if they keep The Pro then Francona will probably play him every day like he did for the Ghost of Kevin Millar for most of this year. Don't get me wrong, you know I love Mueller in a Red Sox uniform. But given the choice between Mueller full time and Youks full time at the hot corner, I'll take the up-and-coming talent. Youkilis has paid his dues in the minors, and has proven that he can hammer big league pitching.
What's up with the bullpen? Who knows. Hopefully Foulke can contribute next year and we can either sign one big live-arm (BJ Ryan, Billy Wagner, etc) or a couple of other solid contributors (Gordon, Wunsch, Tavarez). With Hansen and Delcarmen on the rise, I like the look of the 'pen for the upcoming season.
Thanks very much for your comments!
Hey how about some possible solutions to the GM vacancy?
Seems to be the priority at the moment
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