Mo Money, Mo Pena. Or: How I learned to stop worrying about OBP and love the bombs
Two weeks ago, the Red Sox completed what I see to be a fairly significant trade for the future of the franchise. As you probably read, the Sox swapped fan favorite Bronson Arroyo and cash for Wily Mo Pena, a 24-year old, power hitting strikeout machine.
From the ever-nagging fanboy perspective, I’m sorry to see Bronson go. He was a big part of the ’04 World Series team, and certainly a class act. Having signed a 3 year/$11 million contract earlier in the offseason (most likely below market value), Bronson proclaimed his desire to spend the rest his career with the team that picked him up off the minor league scrapheap and saved his career some 4 years ago. He was the rare ballplayer that went against the advice of his agent, and did not hold the almighty dollar as his highest priority. Thanks, Bronson, for 3 solid years and all the fans you made very happy during that time.
This said, I’ve done my best on this blog to approach these issues from a purely baseball-value perspective, and frankly, I think this is a no-contest slam dunk on the part of the Red Sox front office. Some misguided folks in the media are baffled at this move, which they say goes against the grain of the “Moneyball” philosophy to which Theo and company are supposedly wedded. Fortunately, it is this very misconception that allows our front office to pull off deals like this.
The whole “Moneyball” philosophy (and I hate using this term) is not about merely finding warm bodies who take a bunch of walks. It is, in my mind, a simple organizational creed that emphasizes 1) finding player value in underrated, undercosted areas, and 2) moving from a state of lesser value to a state of greater value. This trade accomplishes both of these aims, with the potential to net a great deal more.
With all of the media attention that “that book” has garnered, it’s no longer a secret (well, to most GMs at least) that OBP is arguably the most important statistic in baseball. Though there are still occasional players with on-base skills who slip through organizational cracks, I get the sense that many clubs are beginning to emphasize plate discipline at every professional level. Thus, even the most statistically literate front offices are pushed to look for other skills that are undervalued in today’s game.
Wily Mo Pena is an example of a player with a fantastic skill: This guy can rake. No, seriously. In his 4 years of major league service (830 at bats), Pena has posted an isolated slugging percentage of .229, more than the career marks of players like Miguel Tejada and Carlos Lee. Have a look at Pena’s stats from the last few years. Two of his comps on baseball-reference.com are Harmon Killebrew and Roger Maris, some of the game’s greatest home run hitters.
So, why would Cincinnati trade him for Bronson Arroyo? Because he strikes out a bunch. And doesn’t have a great glove, despite owning above-average defensive tools across the board. Same old story. We’re talking a team here that is going to do everything in its power to get Tony Womack and his career .672 OPS 500-plus at bats, while Ryan Freel serves as a bench warmer and utility swingman. I’ll let you draw your own conclusions, but I’ll just say that I was very happy the Sox could pull this deal off.
I am of the philosophy that if you can get a young, cheap player with an exceptional talent demonstrated over an adequate sample size, you do it. Pena may not be an on base machine or a defensive wizard, and he many never become these things, but these are skills that can be improved with time. Hitting coaches can teach plate discipline, but you can’t “coach” a player to hit a major league fastball 480 feet.
Pena has a demonstrable elite-level skill with ample time to develop his game. Bronson Arroyo is a great player, but has reached a career plateau that does not boast any such elite-level skill. The Red Sox made the right move in acquiring Pena at a time when his value was low. At worst, he is a 4th outfielder with a ton of power and decent speed. At best, Pena could be a successor to the greats that currently occupy the middle of the lineup. We may not know for some time, but I, for one, am excited at the possibilities this trade has brought to the team.
From the ever-nagging fanboy perspective, I’m sorry to see Bronson go. He was a big part of the ’04 World Series team, and certainly a class act. Having signed a 3 year/$11 million contract earlier in the offseason (most likely below market value), Bronson proclaimed his desire to spend the rest his career with the team that picked him up off the minor league scrapheap and saved his career some 4 years ago. He was the rare ballplayer that went against the advice of his agent, and did not hold the almighty dollar as his highest priority. Thanks, Bronson, for 3 solid years and all the fans you made very happy during that time.
This said, I’ve done my best on this blog to approach these issues from a purely baseball-value perspective, and frankly, I think this is a no-contest slam dunk on the part of the Red Sox front office. Some misguided folks in the media are baffled at this move, which they say goes against the grain of the “Moneyball” philosophy to which Theo and company are supposedly wedded. Fortunately, it is this very misconception that allows our front office to pull off deals like this.
The whole “Moneyball” philosophy (and I hate using this term) is not about merely finding warm bodies who take a bunch of walks. It is, in my mind, a simple organizational creed that emphasizes 1) finding player value in underrated, undercosted areas, and 2) moving from a state of lesser value to a state of greater value. This trade accomplishes both of these aims, with the potential to net a great deal more.
With all of the media attention that “that book” has garnered, it’s no longer a secret (well, to most GMs at least) that OBP is arguably the most important statistic in baseball. Though there are still occasional players with on-base skills who slip through organizational cracks, I get the sense that many clubs are beginning to emphasize plate discipline at every professional level. Thus, even the most statistically literate front offices are pushed to look for other skills that are undervalued in today’s game.
Wily Mo Pena is an example of a player with a fantastic skill: This guy can rake. No, seriously. In his 4 years of major league service (830 at bats), Pena has posted an isolated slugging percentage of .229, more than the career marks of players like Miguel Tejada and Carlos Lee. Have a look at Pena’s stats from the last few years. Two of his comps on baseball-reference.com are Harmon Killebrew and Roger Maris, some of the game’s greatest home run hitters.
So, why would Cincinnati trade him for Bronson Arroyo? Because he strikes out a bunch. And doesn’t have a great glove, despite owning above-average defensive tools across the board. Same old story. We’re talking a team here that is going to do everything in its power to get Tony Womack and his career .672 OPS 500-plus at bats, while Ryan Freel serves as a bench warmer and utility swingman. I’ll let you draw your own conclusions, but I’ll just say that I was very happy the Sox could pull this deal off.
I am of the philosophy that if you can get a young, cheap player with an exceptional talent demonstrated over an adequate sample size, you do it. Pena may not be an on base machine or a defensive wizard, and he many never become these things, but these are skills that can be improved with time. Hitting coaches can teach plate discipline, but you can’t “coach” a player to hit a major league fastball 480 feet.
Pena has a demonstrable elite-level skill with ample time to develop his game. Bronson Arroyo is a great player, but has reached a career plateau that does not boast any such elite-level skill. The Red Sox made the right move in acquiring Pena at a time when his value was low. At worst, he is a 4th outfielder with a ton of power and decent speed. At best, Pena could be a successor to the greats that currently occupy the middle of the lineup. We may not know for some time, but I, for one, am excited at the possibilities this trade has brought to the team.
posted by Jason Paré at 1:14 AM
2 Comments:
Yeah. Great trade. Arroyo is 2-0 and has HIT 2 homeruns.
GOODBYE WILY MO!
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