Hot Stove Madness
It's been a while since I updated (understatement), but I thought I'd take a minute and weigh in on some of the free agent signings in this '06-'07 offseason.
Jim Edmonds remains with the Cardinals, 2 years $19 million
I know at least one other guy who’s very happy about this deal. Edmonds can still flash the leather with the best of them in center, and that alone is a reason to whip out the checkbook. Though he’s clearly on the decline, Jimmy Ballgame still provides offensive value by taking walks and driving the ball when he makes contact. The major concern at this point is his susceptibility to injury, as flying into walls and diving for balls are not forgiving on 37-year-old bodies. If he can give the Cardinals 400 at-bats and 130 starts in center each year for the duration of the contract, he’ll put a cap on an outstanding career, with an outside chance at the Hall of Fame.
Overall grade: B+
Aramis Ramirez to the Cubs, 5 years $75 million
I like this move. Chicago locks up arguably their best offensive position player for a slightly below-market value and with a contract that ends just as he’s likely to go into the steep decline phase of his career. Despite a slow start to 2006, Ramirez finished the year with over a .900 OPS and a career high Isolated Slugging. He has also taken steps in plate discipline in recent years, improving his walk ratio and decreasing his strikeouts in the last few seasons.
Ramirez supposedly measures as below average defensively, especially in hands and range. Baseball Prospectus 2005 (left my 2006 copy at school) has him at -10 runs with the glove. Considering his age (29 at midseason 2007) there is still a year or two left for him to play reasonably defense, and even if he has to move to first base later in his career, he’s got the bat to support it. Well done, Jim Hendry.
Overall grade: A-
Alfonso Soriano to the Cubs, 8 years $136 million
I did not see this one coming. For an organization that sorely needs to rebuild from within both talent-wise and philosophically, I had not anticipated the Cubs splurging on the free agent market, especially after re-upping with Ramirez for no small amount.
Now, I’ve always been one of Soriano’s biggest detractors, but there’s no denying that the guy can swing the bat. Every year I predict that the league will figure him out, and every year he proves me wrong. He snubbed me in especially flamboyant fashion in 2006 by joining the elusive “40-40 club.” Particularly impressive was that he posted the highest ISO of his career in a reportedly pitching-friendly park and drastically improved his walk total. Soriano worked 67 bases on balls, nearly doubling his next highest season total (38 in 2003), leading to his highest RC/27 of his career, perhaps the most important offensive statistic.
For a bit of perspective, however, Soriano’s Runs Created rate puts him at 31st in the league, just in front of Reed Johnson and Vernon Wells but behind much lesser known players like Garret Atkins (#13) and Carlos Guillen (#23). I realize that the free agent market continues to appreciate in cost and risk, but this remains an absurd contract for a 31-year old player without an elite skillset.
I have always said that Soriano was more flash than substance, better fantasy player than real player, and despite 2006 I stand by my statement. He lacks defensive instincts in both the infield and outfield, a problem that will only fester as he loses the speed he uses to compensate for poor reads. Eight years is an eternity to give an all-hit, no-glove player on the wrong side of 30, especially one that is already an abysmal contact hitter (160 strikeouts last year) with poor strike zone judgment (throw him breaking stuff away, and feel the breeze). It’s often foolish to hand out 6+ year contracts to even the best players in baseball (How good will 37-year old Todd Helton be in 2010?), and Soriano’s are not skills that one should overpay for.
It is admittedly nearly impossible to get fair value in today’s free agent market, but I submit that Soriano’s offensive skillset is not enough to justify the paycheck, especially in light of his porous defense in a league where he can’t be hidden at DH as he ages. I guess this move fits with their organizational fascination with long-swinged toolsy hackers, but the Cubs could have better spent this money improving the team in other areas.
Overall grade: C-
More to come with more Hot Stove activity…
Jim Edmonds remains with the Cardinals, 2 years $19 million
I know at least one other guy who’s very happy about this deal. Edmonds can still flash the leather with the best of them in center, and that alone is a reason to whip out the checkbook. Though he’s clearly on the decline, Jimmy Ballgame still provides offensive value by taking walks and driving the ball when he makes contact. The major concern at this point is his susceptibility to injury, as flying into walls and diving for balls are not forgiving on 37-year-old bodies. If he can give the Cardinals 400 at-bats and 130 starts in center each year for the duration of the contract, he’ll put a cap on an outstanding career, with an outside chance at the Hall of Fame.
Overall grade: B+
Aramis Ramirez to the Cubs, 5 years $75 million
I like this move. Chicago locks up arguably their best offensive position player for a slightly below-market value and with a contract that ends just as he’s likely to go into the steep decline phase of his career. Despite a slow start to 2006, Ramirez finished the year with over a .900 OPS and a career high Isolated Slugging. He has also taken steps in plate discipline in recent years, improving his walk ratio and decreasing his strikeouts in the last few seasons.
Ramirez supposedly measures as below average defensively, especially in hands and range. Baseball Prospectus 2005 (left my 2006 copy at school) has him at -10 runs with the glove. Considering his age (29 at midseason 2007) there is still a year or two left for him to play reasonably defense, and even if he has to move to first base later in his career, he’s got the bat to support it. Well done, Jim Hendry.
Overall grade: A-
Alfonso Soriano to the Cubs, 8 years $136 million
I did not see this one coming. For an organization that sorely needs to rebuild from within both talent-wise and philosophically, I had not anticipated the Cubs splurging on the free agent market, especially after re-upping with Ramirez for no small amount.
Now, I’ve always been one of Soriano’s biggest detractors, but there’s no denying that the guy can swing the bat. Every year I predict that the league will figure him out, and every year he proves me wrong. He snubbed me in especially flamboyant fashion in 2006 by joining the elusive “40-40 club.” Particularly impressive was that he posted the highest ISO of his career in a reportedly pitching-friendly park and drastically improved his walk total. Soriano worked 67 bases on balls, nearly doubling his next highest season total (38 in 2003), leading to his highest RC/27 of his career, perhaps the most important offensive statistic.
For a bit of perspective, however, Soriano’s Runs Created rate puts him at 31st in the league, just in front of Reed Johnson and Vernon Wells but behind much lesser known players like Garret Atkins (#13) and Carlos Guillen (#23). I realize that the free agent market continues to appreciate in cost and risk, but this remains an absurd contract for a 31-year old player without an elite skillset.
I have always said that Soriano was more flash than substance, better fantasy player than real player, and despite 2006 I stand by my statement. He lacks defensive instincts in both the infield and outfield, a problem that will only fester as he loses the speed he uses to compensate for poor reads. Eight years is an eternity to give an all-hit, no-glove player on the wrong side of 30, especially one that is already an abysmal contact hitter (160 strikeouts last year) with poor strike zone judgment (throw him breaking stuff away, and feel the breeze). It’s often foolish to hand out 6+ year contracts to even the best players in baseball (How good will 37-year old Todd Helton be in 2010?), and Soriano’s are not skills that one should overpay for.
It is admittedly nearly impossible to get fair value in today’s free agent market, but I submit that Soriano’s offensive skillset is not enough to justify the paycheck, especially in light of his porous defense in a league where he can’t be hidden at DH as he ages. I guess this move fits with their organizational fascination with long-swinged toolsy hackers, but the Cubs could have better spent this money improving the team in other areas.
Overall grade: C-
More to come with more Hot Stove activity…
posted by Jason Paré at 7:09 PM
4 Comments:
Welcome back, sir. I (obviously) agree that resigning Edmonds was a good move, not least because there was simply no better option. I was also surprised that our pathetic rivals decided to go after Sory and that they signed him to an 8 YEAR deal... that seems terribly excessive. I feel bad for teams that will have to look to that as a precedent when signing other high profile free agents. Thank you for giving me the actual facts to back it up when I say that this was a poor move.
So, is the blog going to make a comeback starting April 1st? I, for one, am hopeful.
This blog seems to be dead. Great name though. Are you willing to part with it Jason?
It's almost been a year. Time for another update????
Post a Comment
<< Home