Closer to the Edge

Many encouraging things could be said about last night’s game. Wade Miller somewhat kept us in the game, despite not having his best stuff. The bats adjusted to a cruising Cliff Lee, and eventually put runs on the board. We were even able to rally a lead off of the Indians’ normally lights-out bullpen, giving us what should have been enough push to begin our next winning streak.

Now, the bad news about last night’s game. We lost. And something is very, very wrong with Keith Foulke. It’s surprising to be reminded that Foulke has blown only 3 saves thus far, since it has felt like walking on eggshells watching him pitch during the entire 2005 season. With every bad outing comes a new excuse – not enough consistent work, still working on mechanics, problems at home, problems locating the changeup. It’s no longer the time to be making adjustments. This is July and we’re just barely leading a hot pennant race. We cannot be blowing 3-run leads in the 9th inning.

You heard it here first, folks, Keith Foulke is injured. You don’t just lose visible fastball velocity for no reason. The man has avoided questions about possibly injury so well that you’d swear he took lessons from Johnny Cochran. Fans would all be willing to chip in to buy him a fleet of new trucks if he could just show us that 88 mph fastball and devastating changeup that carried us to last year’s world championship. Even worse, the Fenway Faithful are beginning to turn on him, and his recent inflammatory comments have only made a bad situation worse.

I’m sure Theo would consider a trade. Foulke himself has said that he could see himself being traded this year. But something tells me there’s little market for relievers with a $14 million contract, a batting practice fastball, and a bad attitude. Don’t get me wrong, I will always respect Keith Foulke for his heroics in the ’04 postseason, but this is not the time to keep “running him out there,” as Terry Francona would say. Call me crazy, but this “Johnny from Burger King” sees the need for a major bullpen adjustment.

Foulke needs to go on the disabled list and figure out whatever health/mechanical/personal trouble is preventing him from pitching up to his potential. If there is, in fact, no injury, he must be given lower leverage innings until he regains his fastball, proper mechanics, and confidence. A similar stint for Embree would also be ideal. One or two pitchers from the minors must be called up until a trade becomes viable. Arroyo must be moved to the bullpen as soon as Schilling can reclaim his spot in the rotation, and Francona must not be afraid to use Arroyo in multiple types of situations.

The “closer” situation is a tricky one, as Mantei’s control has been suspect all year and Timlin excels in his current role. I hate to advocate the dreaded “Closer By Committee”, but the gravity of the situation would probably merit it. We must see if Mantei can shake his control problems, if Arroyo can replace Timlin’s middle relief innings, and if Timlin can close. We also need to audition one or two minor leaguers, in hopes that they don’t implode like the infamous “Cla Meredith Project.”

Your thoughts?

At some point, I’ll do a writeup on possible bullpen arms, names such as: Mota, Linebrink, Rhodes, Affeldt, Farnsworth. That’s all for now.

All good things...

Arroyo (6-3) vs. Millwood (2-5)

If you’re a Red Sox fan, by now you’ve likely heard all the accolades I could provide for last week’s performance. An amazing 6-0 on the road. First road sweep of more than 3 games since the Carter administration. Even Shaughnessy is now saying that the Sox are going to win the AL East in a landslide and go on to their 2nd world series in as many years. It’s obvious to anybody who’s watched these games that our team is running on all cylinders and the long-term reign of the Boston Red Sox has finally begun! Constituents of Red Sox Nation huddled around their collective televisions tonight, eager to cheer the Olde Town Team to its 8th straight victory.

Well. As my roommate is fond of saying, “baseball is a funny game.”

After their hottest week in recent memory, the Sox returned home to an absolute face-smashing from the same Cleveland Indians they swept on the road. Bronson Arroyo looked sharp through the first 3 innings, but allowed a double to Travis Hafner in the 3rd inning and then walked the next two batters. Mark Bellhorn booted a routine double play ball, and it was all downhill from there. Kevin Millwood (6.0 IP, 3H, 2BB, 6K) made the Red Sox hitters look absolutely foolish for 6 innings, and the vaunted Cleveland bullpen retired the final nine Red Sox batters in order to complete the shutout. Particularly discouraging was Arroyo’s continued troubles against left handed hitters and the lineup’s inability to work the count.

I’m a big fan of Arroyo, but even I am beginning to admit that it is time for him to either go to the bullpen or be traded upon Schilling’s return. His overall K/9 has declined from last year’s sterling numbers (down to 5.56 from 7.17 in 2004), but more disturbingly is the sharp increase in batting average against for lefties (.289 this year compared with .269 last year).

For a pitcher without dominating stuff, it’s of paramount importance for Arroyo to be able to reach back and strike out a batter when the situation calls for it. Watching Ben Broussard’s 10-pitch at bat in tonight’s game (which ended in a walk), it’s becoming apparent that Arroyo has no out pitch against left-handed hitters, who often foul off his breaking ball and either work the base-on-balls or hammer a poorly located fastball.

On the bright side, Arroyo is still very effective against right-handed hitters (.202 BAA, 6.44 k/9). This, coupled with his bullpen experience, would make him an ideal combined long reliever and setup man. If Schilling can return to his normal self, Arroyo’s move to the bullpen could allow the team to release John Halama (1-1, 6.19, .294 BAA) and provide roster space for a better left handed short reliever.

Arroyo has already shown that he can provide solid relief in high-leverage innings, as when a starter pitches effectively for 5 or 6 innings but pitch count necessitates his exit. He would likely face fewer left-handed hitters in this situation, as managers would be reluctant to pinch hit their left-handed bench players in the middle of a game. Arroyo could also be used for the occasional inning-eating “mop-up” work, and could easily move back into the rotation if the team experiences further injuries.

We will see tomorrow how the Red Sox regroup from this shutout, which was hopefully just a routine bump in the road. Ahead by 2.5 games in the East, though, and with our ace soon to return from injury, chins are still up in the land of the chowderheads.

Red Sox are Awakened, Take 1st in East

Wakefield (5-6) vs Lieber (8-6)

In the NESN pregame show, Jerry Remy and Eric Frede made it a point to talk about the cozy confines of Citizens Bank Ballpark. Doug Mirabelli hammered this point home with his second inning 3-run homer, and the Red Sox never looked back. Wakefield’s knuckleball danced for eight scoreless innings, ostensibly helped by the heat and humidity in Philadelphia. Manny Ramirez added a three run homer in the 5th, and the all-time Florida Tech home run leader Tim Wakefield picked up his second hit of interleague play en route to his sixth victory of the season. The Red Sox now lead the Baltimore Orioles by half a game in the AL east.

Despite his rough outing, one has to wonder why the Yankees declined Jon Lieber’s $8 million, opting to instead devote those funds to signing Jaret Wright. Lieber’s stuff is not dominating by any means, but he rarely falls behind in counts, strikes out an adequate total for a control pitcher (5.47 k/9 since 2001), and has posted a most impressive 4.30 K/BB ratio since 2001. Instead of picking up Lieber’s option, the Yankees elected to sign journeyman Jaret Wright after an impressive year with the Braves (15-8, 3.28 ERA, 159Ks, .242 BAA).

However, there were many warning signs that portended a flameout for Wright in the big apple. Wright comes with a history of wildness (career BB/9 : 4.37. Wow.) and an injury plagued past .The fact that his accomplishments came in the NL, on a perennial division winner, and under a pitching coach sometimes called a “miracle worker” should also have lead the Yankees to consider their options more thoroughly. Now, Wright has spent 2 months on the disabled list with inflammation in his surgically repaired shoulder, and Lieber’s talents are being wasted in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the majors.

In the minors, shortstop phenom Dustin Pedroia continued to hit at AAA Pawtucket, going 2-4 with a double and a walk. Roberto Petagine was 2/4 with an RBI, and catcher Kelly Shoppach added 5RBI on a double and a 3-run home run in Pawtucket’s 13-2 rout of Durham.

Broom Time in Sweepsville

The Red Sox were able to complete an impressive road sweep Wednesday night, winning 5-4 over the Cleveland Indians. Wade Miller looked solid in his first 5 innings, using all of his pitches and locating his fastball well, giving up only one unearned run on what Jerry Remy deemed a “Manny Moment,” Red Sox Nation’s special moniker for an E7. Tribe starter Cliff Lee was also impressive, giving up just 2 earned runs, both on solo home runs, through his 7 innings.

Miller’s trouble began in the 6th inning, where he walked the first two batters, the second of which was on a fastball very close to the zone. Ben Broussard laced a base hit into right field, loading the bases for Casey Blake. Blake singled in a run, and Miller left the game with some harsh words for the home plate umpire. Francona elected to bring in Alan Embree from the pen. Though I’m sure I wasn’t the only one yelling at my TV screen, Embree was impressive, striking out PH Jose Hernandez and inducing an inning-ending double play ball.

The Sox were able to score 2 runs in the bottom of the 4th, one on 1B John Olerud’s first home run as a member of the Red Sox. Edgar Renteria added an RBI double off closer Bob Wickman in the 9th to give Keith Foulke and the Red Sox the win. A road sweep is especially encouraging considering the team’s inconsistency when playing away from Fenway Park.

In minor league news, second baseman Dustin Pedroia was promoted from AA Portland to AAA Pawtucket. In his first start for the PawSox, “Pedro” doubled and scored a run. Roberto Petagine continued his dominance of minor league pitching, going 2/3 with a walk on Wednesday to raise his season AVG/OBP/OPS to a gargantuan .331/.436/1.127. Both may figure into the late season options of the Red Sox when rosters expand. At AA Portland, shortstop Hanley Ramirez doubled and stole a base in his first day back from the disabled list.

Sox vs. Indians - June 21, 2005

The Sox got off to an early lead on a David Ortiz 2-run homer and never ceded the lead. Cleveland’s lineup was stacked with left-handed hitters to take advantage of Arroyo’s breaking ball, as we have seen both the Cubs and the Orioles do in Arroyo’s recent starts. Luckily, Arroyo made the necessary adjustments and pitched 7 dominant innings (7.0 IP, 4H, 1BB, ER, 4K) to earn the win. Unlike previous outings, Arroyo was not afraid to go to his changeup and fastball, which hit 92 on the gun and accounted for two of his strikeouts. Ortiz added another homer in the fifth, and each member of the starting lineup (with the exception of Renteria) had at least one hit. The back of the bullpen pitched two adequate mopup innings, and the Sox will now win their third series in a row.

Red Tide

Today the Cincinnati front office announced their latest installment in a series of drastic changes for the Reds club, electing to fire Manager Dave Miley and pitching coach Don Gullett. The Reds named bench coach Jerry Narron interim manager for the remainder of the year. This management change comes on the heels of designating for assignment both RHP Danny Graves and 2B D’Angelo Jimenez just three weeks ago, both surprise moves by the Reds’ FO. Many were especially surprised by the eventual outright release of Graves, who had played nearly his entire career with the club, both in starting and relief roles.

While certain changes needed to be made, I would contend that the Reds could have handled the need to replace these players in a much more efficient and profitable manner, especially avoiding a PR and clubhouse morale disaster that ensued (see Dunn, Adam) in the case of Graves.

It’s no secret that the Reds possess an overabundance of infielders. With Rich Aurilia, Will Bergolla, Luis Lopez, Felipe Lopez, and Ryan Freel all vying for time in the middle infield, Jimenez (.229/.350/.615 this year in 105 ABs) was admittedly an expendable commodity, especially due to Felipe Lopez’s breakout year. However, there is always a market for middle infielders entering their peak years, especially those who have 15-HR power, the ability to steal an occasional base, and an above average understanding of the strike zone. Jimenez’s career on-base percentage (.350) is nearly 100 points higher than his career average, and he was second on the team to Adam Dunn last year in walks (82 walks, 99 strikeouts in 152 games played). I’m fully convinced that the Reds could have at least traded Jimenez for a mid-level prospect instead of sending him to stagnate in AA ball and swallowing his $2.85 million contract.

Graves presented a similar predicament, yet management again chose to release him and eat the entire $6.25 million he was owed for this year. Despite his lackluster peripherals and reported drop in velocity since converting from reliever to starter and back to reliever, Graves so recently held the all-important Closer role for which teams are always willing to overpay. Last year’s 41 saves and All-Star selection alone should have made him marketable enough to obtain prospects or another bullpen arm, with management only having to eat a percentage of his contract.

Thus, it seems that the Reds are sacrificing capital to change the face of the club simply for the sake of change itself. Unfortunately, in all likelihood, these steps won’t pull them out of the NL Central’s dingy basement. There have been a few bright spots for the Reds, including the emergence of Felipe Lopez and relative health of Ken Griffey Jr., but there is not much hope for the future if management continues to make these ostensibly hasty moves. I cannot profess to know very much about the management skills of Dave Miley (though I do know that he prefers to use a career .280/.376/.761 hitter with 40-stolen base speed off the bench instead of at the top of the lineup every single day…more on this later), but I can see that the problems of this team run far deeper than the man who sets the lineups every day.

Slugfest at the Jake

Sabathia (5-4) vs. Wells (5-3)

Nearly 550 pounds worth of starting pitcher failed to quiet the hot bats of Boston and Cleveland tonight at Jacobs Field. Cleveland starter C.C. Sabathia appeared polished in his first 3 innings, allowing just one baserunner and striking out 4. However, Manny Ramirez (6 for 11, 3HR lifetime against Sabathia entering the game) homered on a mislocated low changeup to give the Sox a 3-1 lead in the 4th inning. In the top of the 5th, the visibly rattled Sabathia gave up three consecutive base hits before recording an out. During Manny's at bat this inning, C.C. appeared to be overthrowing on every pitch, all fastballs clocked in the mid-upper 90's. Manny worked the count to full, and then blooped an RBI base hit into shallow right. Jason Varitek came to bat and crushed an opposite field 3-run homer that put the Sox up 9-4 and made it an early night for Sabathia.

The Sox took a 9-5 lead into the 8th inning, but again bullpen issues made this potential blowout into another nailbiter. Alan Embree gave up a 2-run home run (his 8th on the season in 31+ innings, passing his total for all of last season) on a full count to Travis Hafner, and closer Keith Foulke gave up a solo shot to Victor Martinez before recording the last out in the 8th. Johnny Damon gave the team some breathing room by leading off the 9th inning with a solo home run, but Foulke again provided some endgame drama. He allowed a walk and an RBI double before finally retiring the last two hitters on hard-hit balls, both of which would have fallen if not for good defensive plays by Jay Payton and Johnny Damon. Starter David Wells was not at his best (5IP, 10H, 4ER, 2BB, 4K) but kept the team in the game to earn his 5th victory.

Once again, the bullpen appears to be one of the team's main flaws heading towards the All Star Break and trade deadline. Alan Embree's fastball velocity is down considerably from his career norm, and he does not possess an effective offspeed pitch with which to compensate. His former appeal as a "lefty specialist that can get right-handers out" has worn itself out, as he can no longer get hitters out regardless of which side of the plate they bat from. Keith Foulke has been erratic throughout the year with locating his changeup, and has also experienced a slight decrease in velocity. Reports of knee and back ailments abound, but Foulke refuses to talk about them unless you're willing to buy him a truck. Righty flamethrower Matt Mantei's control has abandoned him, posting a 20/17 (1.18) K/BB ratio in 22.1 innings (2.12 career) this season, and has pitched many of his innings only in low-leverage situations. The glue holding this bullpen together consists of a veteran who, despite having great success thus far, can't be called upon to pitch every day (Timlin), and a lefty specialist that ideally only faces one or two batters per game (Myers). Obviously, some changes need to be made if these trends continue. The forthcoming return of Curt Schilling may allow for some bullpen aid if Bronson Arroyo is moved to a long-relief or setup role. Arroyo has been particularly effective against right-handed hitters this season, allowing a paltry .202 BAA. Outside help is also an option, and I will analyze the merits of a few potential bullpen arms in my upcoming articles about some of the Olde Town Team's options at the trade deadline.

Next game: Sox @ Cleveland, 7:05 PM

Sox vs. Pirates – June 19, 2005

Starter Matt Clement dominated in 7 shutout innings, rising to 8-1 on the season. As usual, Clement’s pitches were moving all over the zone, and his “electric” outpitch slider was devastating, dropping off the table and accounting for the majority of his strikeouts. Clement commented in his postgame that he is finally seeing better results with this pitch. As one of the few pitchers who have made the successful jump from NL to AL this year, Clement has actually decreased his traditionally troublesome bb/9 ratio, despite having to face the DH. If Clement can continue to pile up the strikeouts (78 in 95 2/3 innings) and maintain his k/bb ratio (2.44 right now, 1.89 career prior to this year) he should continue to see success.

As for the bats, Manny and Damon were both given the day off, which allowed for a different looking lineup. Trot Nixon (.294/.342/.858) hit in the leadoff spot, going 2/4 with 2 runs scored and a walk. Millar played left field in the absence of Ramirez, and John Olerud put on his usual defensive clinic at first base. Mueller and Ortiz added a pair of triples, as the offense steamrolled Pirates pitching for 8 runs.

In the minor league files, Roberto Petagine (.307/.417/1.063 in 33 games) continued to shine at AAA Pawtucket, where he went 3/5 with his 11th home run of the season. Petagine left major league baseball after an unsuccessful 5-year stint to play in Japan, where he hit .317 with 223 home runs and 594 RBI in 756 games, also winning 3 gold gloves, 2 batting titles, and an MVP. Signed to a minor league contract this spring, Petagine figures to be a possible stopgap solution if Olerud’s bat quiets or Millar returns to his low level of production. However, with Millar’s hot streak and Olerud’s more than adequate defensive replacement/left handed PH performance, it’s looking less and less likely that we’ll see how Petagine fares against major league pitching this season. In my opinion, Petagine should be given at least the opportunity to display his skills at the major league level. Though his impressive power numbers may not translate to major league play, he merits a few starts for his demonstrated batting eye and contact hitting alone.

On a lighter note, 3rd base coach Dale Sveum was seen wearing an elbow brace in today’s game, reportedly the result of a ligament sprained while furiously waving Sox baserunners home, only to be gunned down by 10+ feet at the plate. Red Sox Nation wishes him well, and hopes that he will rest this overused appendage.

Next game: Sox @ Cleveland, 7:05 PM

Introduction

Hello all,

My name is Jason Pare. At this site I will endeavor to provide frequent updates with game commentary, news, and analysis. I will be mainly focusing on the Boston Red Sox, but also news from around the major and minor leagues with regard to management, players, prospects, trades, and statistics. I plan to update once every day or two, so please check back frequently.