Possible solutions to the CF vacancy

I’ve compiled a few reasonable options for next year’s center field position, assuming that Johnny Damon won’t be returning. Here we go:

Who: Brad Wilkerson, CF/1B, WAS

Why: Wilkerson would be my top choice to put on a Sox uniform in 2006. He’s a 29 year old with a solid CF glove and a plus arm, and also plays first base. Wilkerson still has 2 years of salary arbitration, so he should provide cost-effective offense over the next couple of years if he can be had in a trade. Wilkerson had a down year in 2005 due to playing through multiple injuries, but still put up a line of .248/.351/.405 while playing half of his games in a heavy pitcher’s park. His 2004 year was his breakout, where he slugged 32 home runs, walked over a hundred times, and hit .255/.374/.498 while having the second highest pitches per plate appearance in the NL. He could also fill the role of leadoff hitter, since he has adequate baserunning speed and sees lots of pitches. His power will not be wasted at the top of the lineup, since Sox #8 and #9 hitters are frequently on base anyway.

How: Wilkerson is not a free agent this offseason, but has reportedly had trouble with teammate Jose Guillen and manager Frank Robinson. We have seen that the Nationals’ front office doesn’t seem to take a particularly statistical approach to player management, as evidenced by signing Christian Guzman to be their starting shortstop for 4 years and $16 million (Ask me why this is worse than the Renteria contract). Thus, perhaps Wilkerson can be had for less than his true value, which in my opinion is quite high. As we know from the clamor over Damon’s free agency, .800 OPS decent-fielding center fielders don’t grow on trees. If the Sox can make reasonably sure that Wilkerson has healed from his injuries during the 2005 season, the Sox should take advantage of his “down” year and get a trade done.


Who: Ryan Freel, 2B/3B/OF, CIN

Why: He’s cheap (still under arbitration – made only $400,000 this past season) and can play a ton of positions with competence. He has acceptable range in the outfield (.877 career zone rating in CF) and exceptional speed. While Freel is not a monster at the plate, he has quite a few qualities that make him a good leadoff candidate. He sees a good number of pitches (about 4 per plate appearance over the last two years) and has an above average batting eye and walk rate, which have improved over the last couple of years.

A right-handed doubles hitter, Freel would benefit from the wall in short left field. Freel is also a speedy baserunner, having swiped 73 bags over the last two years with a 78% success rate. If we are able to acquire a bigger bat to play center, Freel’s ability to hit left-handed pitching could allow him to be Nixon’s platoon partner in right field, as well as filling in at second and third base as needed.

How: Though Cincinnati probably enjoys Freel’s decent production for such a low cost, their lineup choices have made it pretty clear that they see him as more of an oft-played utility man than a fulltime position player. If we could acquire him through trade and either play him fulltime in center, or split time between left/center/infield, he could be a solid asset to the team. Now if we could only convince the Cincinnati front office to throw in that Dunn fellow as well…


Who: Kenny Lofton, CF, free agent

Why: Now we’re digging a little deeper, but the veteran can still play reasonable center field defense and draw a decent number of walks. Though an injury risk at this point in his career (last 500 at-bat season: 2001), Lofton still appears to be a legit .750-ish OPS center fielder. Perhaps a reduction in emphasis on his famous running game will allow him to stay healthier in Boston while providing experience and adequate speed at the top of the lineup. The presence of two lefty outfielders in the lineup would be troubling, though, as both are liabilities against left handed pitching

How: Sign him to a one or two year deal. One year for $2.5 million or two for 4 could do the trick, though I think the Red Sox will explore many other options before resorting to Lofton.


Who: Preston Wilson, CF, free agent

Why: Preston Wilson is on this list simply because he’s a free agent with a pulse and above-league average numbers for a center fielder. This is not to say that I think he’s a bad player, it’s just that I think he will command more money on the open market than his Coors-inflated skillset is worth. However, after having multiple knee problems in the last couple of years, perhaps the 31-year old is looking to sign a 1-year discount deal to prove his health before seeking the last multiple year/big money contract of his career (see: Garciaparra, Nomar. 2005).

Wilson’s average arm and declining range are nothing to get excited about, but his bat still has enough pop left in it to bounce 30-plus doubles off of the Green Monster. His lackluster on-base skills make me doubt he’s the kind of player the Sox FO is looking for, but there are certainly worse options out there.

How: Sign him to a 1-year deal at a discount. Allow him to accumulate 100 RBI in Red Sox lineup. Laugh and wave goodbye next November when he signs for big money somewhere else.

Though it’s difficult to predict how the center field situation will pan out in 2006, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a platoon complement whatever main starter the Sox acquire. As he’s obligated to be on the active roster for at least the beginning of the year we’ll likely see Rule 5-er Adam Stern in the mix, as well as minor league journeyman Alejandro Machado manning center. Thoughts? Comments? Drop me a line.

The Offseason Report, part 1: An Idiot's Farewell

As always, the 2005-2006 offseason will be filled with difficult decisions for Theo and company. With a few key players departing for free agency and a dearth of top-shelf talent on the free agent market, the Red Sox front office will endeavor to piece together the starting lineup, bench, bullpen, and rotation for 2006 and beyond. Perhaps the most highly anticipated decision of the year is whether to sign Johnny Damon to a long-term contract. Damon has said he is seeking a deal in the neighborhood of 5 years / $50 million dollars. Letting Damon walk and perhaps allowing him to sign with a rival AL team will be a difficult call to make, but I believe it is the right one. Here are some of my thoughts:

Though generally billed as a solid defensive center fielder, Damon has said publicly that he has trouble judging fly balls since his head injury in the 2003 ALCS, a problem that is especially bad in domed stadiums. As a subjective viewer, it seems that Damon often takes suboptimal routes to fly balls, instead relying on his speed, which may itself be in decline, to compensate. Obviously I won't reference stolen base numbers as indicators of speed (Damon actually had a ratio of 18 steals to 1 caught stealing, suggesting improvement as a baserunner), but his zone rating in center has seen a steady decline over the last four years (.910, .906, .879, .874 for 2002-2005 as per ESPN).

Common sense would dictate that Damon's speed will decline substantially over the term of his next contract, thus leading to a similar decline in defense. His already below-average arm was rendered nearly useless following a midseason nagging shoulder injury to the point where, in one game, Carl Crawford actually tagged up and scored from second on a deep fly out to center.

If we look at Damon's hitting numbers we find similar red flags that would caution handing out a long-term contract. Damon's walk rate plummeted in '05 while his strikeout rate remained the same, and he appeared to be pressing at the plate in the second half, hacking at many first pitches and balls out of the zone. This is evidenced in his drop in number of pitches seen per plate appearance (3.72 in 2005 after 4.13 in '03 and 4.12 in '04). Damon's isolated power also dropped from .173 in '04 to .123 this season, and we can be reasonably sure he will never replicate his 2004 career high in home runs (20) at age 33.

Assume, for a moment, that these are normal regressions to the mean following a career year in 2004. Assume the shoulder injury that sapped his power (.397 slugging percentage and .115 isolated power post all-star break) and reduced his throwing arm to nothing will heal completely in the offseason. We are left with a player whose normal season production falls somewhere in the neighborhood of .315/.370/.435 with a (likely non-replicable) ceiling of his 2004 numbers (.304/.380/.477). Due to his age we can reasonably assume no consistent improvement in his skillset, and can in fact predict a steady decline in skills over the next few years. We would also expect Johnny's "all-out" playing style to increase the probability of serious injury as he ages. Add in the liability for a throwing arm, and this seems like an unattractive candidate for a big-money, long term contract.

Johnny Damon is a unique baseball player with a skillset that will be difficult to replace. Though a self described "idiot," Damon plays the game with intelligence and charisma. He is an excellent leadoff man and the catalyst to the most explosive offense in baseball. Damon is an excellent baserunner whose speed-reliant defense has been more than adequate up to this point. This being said, we should not be handcuffing ourselves to a 33-year old gap-power outfielder. Though a more productive center fielder will be difficult to find, the difference between production of a relatively cheap replacement and Damon can be made up elsewhere in the lineup (first base, for instance).

The Red Sox cannot allow the dearth of free agent talent to force the them into a deal that will compromise payroll flexibility and the ability to sign better free agents in coming years. My greatest fear is that we sign Damon to a 5 year deal, and for 2008 through 2010 are left with a Bernie Williams-like liability patrolling center field. We'll look into some viable replacement options in the next update.