Sunday, January 22, 2006

Sox to trade Marte, sign Gonzalez?

Hello, my few esteemed blog readers!

The Boston Herald is reporting that the Sox have reached a preliminary agreement to send Andy Marte and Guillermo Mota to the Indians for Coco Crisp and low-level prospects. Supposedly, the Red Sox are also set to sign free agent Alex Gonzalez, formerly of the world champion Florida Marlins.

Let’s consider the first move. Earlier this offseason, Boston unloaded Edgar Renteria and cash to get Andy Marte, widely regarded as the best overall prospect in professional baseball. Marte tore up the international league as its youngest member, hitting .275/.372/.506 in 389 at bats in 2005. Now, the Sox are set to flip Marte to Cleveland. Media outlets report that this deal hinges on Cleveland’s ability to send Mota to the Phillies for a replacement outfielder, reportedly Jason Michaels.

If the Sox are set to get Crisp, there are certainly many positives to the situation. Cost controlled, switch-hitting center fielders are a prized commodity. A line drive hitter with decent power for his size, Crisp is just entering his peak years, and has shown steady improvement in both power and on-base skills since entering the league at age 23. Last year he put up a line of .300/.345/.465, including 42 doubles in 594 at bats.

However, Crisp is not a cure-all for the team’s center field and perceived “leadoff man” problem. He is more of a natural corner outfielder, as evidenced by his lack of recent playing time in center (only 10 games last year) and his lackluster fielding stats there (.866 career zone rating in center, compared to a .907 in left field). Though I haven’t seen him play enough to make my own judgments about his fielding, I’ve read reports that he takes awkward routes to fly balls, and doesn’t have the natural defensive tools to be an above average defender in center. Although Crisp is considered speedy, he lacks the high-percentage basestealing skills ideally fitted to a team that only swipes bases situationally. I’m very impressed with his hitting skillset, but his on base percentage and pitches per plate appearance (3.55 career, 3.48 last year) are both low for a “leadoff” hitter.

This situation makes me wonder -- what is stopping the Sox from trading with the Phillies directly for Jason Michaels? With the “Crisp to Boston” rumors flying around for the last couple of months, Michaels has flown under the radar as another inexpensive possible solution to the vacancy. I can’t see why we don’t offer Mota and a B-level prospect to the Phillies, circumventing Marte’s departure entirely. Michaels would provide similar production to Crisp at a drastically reduced cost.

There are many reasons to think Michaels would be a solid fit in the Boston lineup. He sports a career .380 on base percentage, remarkable for a player who has never been given more than 300 at-bats in a season. Hopefully his reputation as a “free swinger” would further drive down his value, because his strikeout totals mask Bellhorn-esque patience (4.06 career P/PA) and on-base skills. These are the numbers of a potential leadoff hitter. Although his splits favor facing left-handed pitching, his .360 OBP and .780 career OPS against right-handers are certainly no liability. If he starts in center against RHP, he could be Trot Nixon’s platoon partner in right field against left-handed starters, allowing Adam Stern to start those games in center field. Michaels isn’t a marquee defender, but figures to be comparable to Crisp at the position.

Given the dearth of reasonable center field options and the rapidly waning hot-stove season, it’s becoming more apparent that the team must make a move. However, I disagree with trading Marte, one of baseball’s rising young stars, when this hole could be filled less expensively with other players. Let me hear your thoughts!

Tomorrow or Tuesday I will post my opinion on the possible Alex Gonzalez signing.